Your Spiritual Financial Guy
Control is an illusion.
Levels are not.
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TAP TO START · VOICE ON
WEEK 3 OF SHARING · WEEK 14 OF THE JOURNEY
The Method
Two maps. One decision.
The auction tells me where buyers and sellers agreed — my levels.
The business tells me what the company is worth at today's metal price — my fair-value fan.
I only act where the two maps agree.
The Map · Four Legs
The weather system behind the trades
Leg 1 · DXY
CONFIRMED
New lows near 98.5 — the dollar leg stands.
Leg 2 · US 2Y
PARTIAL
Momentum rolling, trendline not clean yet.
Leg 3 · US 10Y
OPEN
Rising. Invalidation above 4.746%.
Leg 4 · Fed B/S
$6.1→6.7T
Structural expansion. Liquidity is the tide.
Legs 1–3 drive the metal price. Leg 4 drives the multiple the market pays. Two different axes — one fan.
Live Case · NEM
MY ENTRY → scaled in from $115 down to $88 · cheapest lot $2.89 (135C Jan'27)
LEVEL SAYS → trigger 121.99 fired · now 131.58 · one lot sold at 14.77 (~5x)
BUSINESS SAYS → fan at $4,600 gold: $115–230 · market pays ~10–11x
I'M DOING → full runner to the 135 strike. The level decides, not my hope.
Live Case · WPM
MY ENTRY → $115
LEVEL SAYS → 138.87 flipped · now 157.78 · chart projection 351.65
BUSINESS SAYS → 2026 GEOs: 351 needs ~34x · 2030 GEOs: ~26x at $5,500
I'M DOING → holding. The 351 is a growth story with a timestamp — not a promise.
Live Case · HL
MY ENTRY → $14–15
LEVEL SAYS → closed 20.74, right under weekly line 21.32
BUSINESS SAYS → at $69 silver the fan starts near $100 — under 3x cash flow
I'M DOING → full runner. Tension is information. The level resolves it, not me.
The Honest Ledger
What fits the thesis — and what doesn't
Consistent
NEM · AEM · WPM · HL · FCX moved with the Aug-9 sector breakout — and every move sits inside its fundamental fan. Not euphoria: cash flow.
Inconsistent
KMT −40% — not a metals play, thesis not triggered, shown anyway. Gold.com margins falling despite the rally — a live counterpoint I hold.
Open
VALE — its own iron-ore story, reversal forming, no long trigger yet. Watching, not forcing.
A few months and a handful of positions are evidence, not proof. Anyone selling you certainty from a sample this small is selling you a feeling.
"Anything can happen at any time —
and that's where freedom lies."
THE PRACTICE BEHIND THE PROCESS
Walk With Me
The full map. Every Sunday. Free.
All levels, all fans, the honest ledger, and the invalidation lines — on Substack.
Triggers arming? X first.
READ THE SUNDAY MAP →
THE LIVE MAP →
I share my own trades and my own reasoning. Nothing here is investment advice or a promise of returns.
I can be wrong — that's part of the practice.